Slowing down the effects of “Peak Oil”
“Peak Oil” is the point in time at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically.
The mitigation of peak oil concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of peak oil production from conventional oil wells. Mitigation can be achieved through fuel conservation, substitution, and the development of non-conventional oil resources.
Oil Conservation
Oil conservation can be achieved in many ways. Because most oil is consumed for transportation, much of the discussion regarding mitigation of oil depletion center around the development of transportation that uses less oil, or require much less than used by current vehicles. Today, these include the application of public transport, high fuel efficient hybrid vehicles, bicycles, diesel vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
Oil Substitution
Oil substitution (i.e. the substitution of oil with other fossil fuels) is theoretically relatively easy when static installations are concerned, as in the case for electricity generation. Reserves of coal are substantial, and the technology to use it is well established. Increasing the use of coal, however, would lead to higher carbon emissions which is likely to be politically unacceptable in many countries due to the implications of global warming, although carbon capture and storage may provide a solution. Natural gas is another alternative, and combined cycle power generation using natural gas is the cleanest source of power available using fossil fuels, producing about 30% less carbon dioxide than burning petroleum and about 45% less than burning coal. The major difficulty in the use of natural gas is transportation and storage because of its low density. Natural gas pipelines are economical, but are impractical across oceans.
Nuclear power provides an alternative to fossil fuels that has been exploited in some countries. The use of nuclear power is often a highly contentious issue, though in the long term concerns about nuclear power may be largely overcome if aneutronic fusion power can ever be developed commercially.
Renewable energy sources provide other possible alternatives that rely on more conventional technologies and do not use fossil fuels. The usefulness of many renewable energy sources is also highly contested.
Development of Non-conventional Oil Resources
Non-conventional oil is oil produced or extracted using techniques other than the traditional oil well method from sources such as tar sands, oil shale and the conversion of coal or natural gas to liquid hydrocarbons through processes such as Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. Currently, non-conventional oil production is less efficient and has a larger environmental impact relative to conventional oil production. Compared to conventional oil, much more energy is required to extract oil from non-conventional sources, so increasing costs and carbon emissions. Technology, such as using steam injection in tar sands deposits, is being developed to increase the efficiency of non-conventional oil production.
Synthetic fuel, created via coal liquefaction, requires no engine modifications for use in standard automobiles. As a byproduct of oil embargoes during Apartheid in South Africa, Sasol, using the Fischer-Tropsch process, developed relatively low-cost coal-based fuel. Currently, about 30% of South Africa’s transport-fuel (mostly diesel) is produced from coal. With crude-oil prices above US$40 per barrel, this process is now cost-effective.
The Rimini Protocol
The Rimini Protocol is a proposal made by geologist Colin Campbell in 2003. In order to deal with potential problems from peak oil, Colin Campbell devised the Rimini protocol, which among other things would require countries to balance oil consumption with their current production.
Following the Rimini Protocol, producing countries would not produce oil in excess of their present national depletion rate: i.e., roughly speaking, the oil burnt, expended or exported must equal the oil produced or imported. Furthermore, it would be required that importing nations stabilize their imports at existing levels. This would have the effect of keeping world prices in reasonable relationship to actual production costs and let Third World countries afford their oil imports.
Campbell also stresses the need for outdated principles of economic growth to be surpassed. He states: “the economic fundamentalists … have these really outdated economic principles inherited from the Industrial Revolution, when the world was indeed large and the scope for Man’s activities were at that time more or less infinite. … these economic principles … are very short term in their nature … these people who say that there can be no shortage in an open market and their battle cry is liberalize markets - these people have become really the enemy …”. As such, Campbell strongly criticises those who accelerate the “peak oil” crisis, rather than taking action to curtail it as he recommends.
Campbell substantiates the prediction of the urgent forthcoming “peak oil” crisis by making reference to Saudi Arabia, a nation covering a geographic region wherein there is a huge concentration of oil. Campbell hypothesises: “I think even the Sauds would always develop the larger ones first. So the biggest field in the world is Ghawar, with 80 billion in it perhaps, you step outside from this trend to Safaniya with 35 perhaps, Hanifah about 12 and Shaybah 15, and you come on down. If they develop the big ones first, which one must assume they did, you are down to well, still nice oilfields but of a modest scale, and so I suppose the other discoveries they made have made are smaller by orders of magnitude … it’s quite evident that this doesn’t come close to the past.”
